No Spesific Rule

This indicator (you can download from the following link) is not using RED BLUE trigger to trade... but it most likely give the information on the market current situation. There is NO SPECIFIC RULE to enter the market as long as the market price action that I know didn't come in the discrete form (maybe I'm wrong). The sophisticated mechanism to handle the market behavior couldn't be programmed.

It still always need interaction from human to identify the market scenario. The 'program' just calculate things faster than human but it doesn't have an ability to learn from past and present scenario. We have found that so many traders who tried to create the Specific Rule to enter the market base on combination of indicators will sooner or later fail. (You may or may not agree with me. It just my opinion.)

The only things are 'Buy on Dips' and 'Sell on Rally'.

Download Link :

MatrixRVer1.0

So far so good

So far so good.
The indicator to identify 'Trend', 'Entry' and 'Pattern' combined with Sell High- Buy Low technique.

p/s : Need more testing and observation.

Realize The Truth

For a long time I was believed there was something so called the miracle system, the one touch for green pips system, the perfect signal or what ever you want to called it. Something that I must found out.

But recently I found that there's no such thing. I'm satisfied enough with what I've done in my research. It doesn't meant that I'm already gave up... but it's the truth. It's not easy for me to accept that thing but I have to.

There are only three things needed toward the professional trader... Basic Knowledge, Money Management and Control Emotion. Control Emotion is the most important of all. Stick to the rule and don't believe on any speculation. Define your own risk and let your system run during your trading session.

Again, thanks to Sifu for waked me up from my dream.

"Do not try to bend the spoon ... that's impossible. Instead, only try to realize the truth ... there is no spoon." - The Matrix

My New EA

It is called FullHouse EA and the version is still 1.0.

What so different between this EA and any other EA as it exist today? This EA can not be backtested by Strategy Tester. Why? Because the EA calculate the movements of six currencies, namely UJ, EU, GU, EJ, GJ and EG. While the MT4 Strategy Tester only available for only one pair.

Briefly, the procedure used in the EA is based on :
1. Candle Pattern - same procedures used by the Market Sentiment indicator.
2. Measure the strength or level of dominance of the certain currency in the market.
3. After parallels obtained, EA will select the currency to trade based on candle's entry pattern.
4. Some extra conditions applied on this EA to enter the market in a safe position (For example not to enter the trade on the highest or lowest of the Daily price. Don't chase the market) and also there is risk management to cut lose when unexpected movement occurs.
5. And one more thing before i forget. I only use the H4 and Daily Candle signal as the trend.

I thought the idea seems interesting. But so far I am still not sure whether this EA profitable or not.
I will make this blog as a forex trading journal and forward test for this EA.

Thank you

p/s : it just like poker. full house mean three of kind + one pair... :)

Enhance the interface of indicator

My idea to trade on volume and ATR

Developing Chaos Fractal Breakout EA in progress

The indicators used on this ea are :
1. Awesome Oscillator - to check trend
2. Alligator - to check trend
3. Fractals - High Low breakout

EA procedure :
1. Pending order, BUY STOP above upper fractal during UPTREND. TP 15 pips. SL several pips bellow fractal candle.

1. Pending order, SELL STOP below lower fractal during DOWNTREND. TP 15 pips. SL several pips above fractal candle.

The EA need to modify for further improvement.

I love this EA because it use simple and systematic method.

My First EA

At first, I'm not interested to study EA coding. But the only way to test the trading strategy is by creating EA... that's why I have to learn it. And now, I've got little bit idea about creating EA. The picture above shows the result of my first EA

p/s Good try

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update

Smooth result on GU... I've just realized it

My auto trade project

I'm going to develop my first auto trade project. I thought, It's not really EA (actually i don't really have any idea about EA programming)... it's standard indicator but it will perform auto trade on certain condition by executing the line of code or procedure (it's programming things).

I've made some observation on the stoch+RSI signal and I've listed a few things to be considered about on this auto trade project.

It doesn't necessary to know everything, but i need to know what i have to know.

p/s Could I change the way I sleep? Could I generate money while sleeping? or could I work 24 hours a day?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update

I've finished update the parameters to be used in this program.
And I was also finish program the procedures to open trade (buy and sell), to close order and to detect when the trade hit SL.

The only thing is, to test the program. Is it work or not??? If the the things work... I will make some observation for further enhancement.

This would be my first step to EA programming??? For me, it's not really important. The objective is to create the program to trade automatically. I also wan't the system do exactly as I trade manually. And.... if the trade loss, i will not blame the system. That was the best I can do on manual trading.

p/s Control emotion aspect is not a big deal anymore

Could the system help us to control our emotion???

After a long time... finally i realize that... we make money by waiting. Emotion is the greatest weakness and at the same time it could be the greatest strength of human being. However to deal with market, someone has to be patient and able to controlled emotion. That was the most difficult part in trading.

I've updated the system by adding the system's reminder... hopefully i will always remember to control emotion in trading. I understand that the system is not intelligent enough but at least the system always thinking in logical way.... and won't forget once the instruction set into it.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
And.... Who is BlueDream anyway??? --------------------------------------------------------------------------

Moving to EA???

I've combined 2 indicators source code(BDStochRSI + BDBestEntryAlert), into 1 single source to get integrated and comprehensive info about trend and entry point.

From here, i get an idea to create my first EA. But so far there are many things to observe. And since I'm not familiar with EA programming, I've also many things to study.

--------------------------------------------------------------
Commercial Break
--------------------------------------------------------------

Baa Baa Black Sheep rhyme

Baa baa black sheep, have you any wool?
Yes sir, yes sir, three bags full!
One for the master, one for the dame,
And one for the little boy who lives down the lane.

--------------------------------------------------------------

GBPJPY : Let see what will happen

9:17 am gmt +8

BDStochRSI indicates strong BEARISH in all timeframes... let see what will happen.

*** Warning : This is just a test

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update
9:25 am gmt +8

Close 40 pips when BDStochRSI : H4 - High risk sell (it means oversold and against BEAR direction).

I'm waiting for next signal....

New BlueDream's indicators

There are two indicators :

1. BDStochRSI_Bar
Summarized the signal from standard Stochastic and RSI. I will use this indicator on H4. The signals generated by this indicator are :
- UP
- DOWN
- Correction(Up)
- Correction(Down)
- High Risk SELL
- High Risk BUY
- No Signal
The indicator could save time, simplified analysis and reduce human error.

2. BDBestEntryAlert
This indicator won't show the direction of market but it's aim to get the best among the best entry point for BUY and SELL, so that our post will follow the price movement as soon as we enter the market. I will use this indicator to read M5 pattern (fractals and engulfing) for entry point. Moreover, the signal generated earlier before current candle complete (as soon as the pattern captured by program)... so that we won't miss even few pips (the idea of indicator's creation). The indicator display alert box, no need to watch chart on every single moment to get entry point.

For example : Let say the indicator on H4 shows that the market will up.... by using BDBestEntryAlert, i will accept only on BUY signal to enter the market

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update


I've updated the BDStochRSI_Bar. The indicator display signal summary for all timeframes and indicator's bar not displayed.

The signal result was actually same (or maybe accidentally same) as what i have summarized on my price action analysis using candles formation... where biggest timeframes indicates strong BEARISH and no sign yet for BULL while H4 indicates weak BULL.

Please refer my post on Saturday, August 30, 2008 - GBPJPY : My Next week trading option.

BDHiLo Update

I've updated the BDHilo to highlight and monitor breakout Vs Hi Lo Range.

The font change to bold... colored with RED or BLUE on breakout. So that i can get more alert on High or Low breakout event.

H4 fractal failure history

The method i use in my Hi Lo trading system is H4 fractal.

I've did some history checking on data to find out the occurrence of the system's failure. Since 1st August 2007 there are 35 times the price against the fractal direction and broke High or Low.

That's mean 35 times fails in a year.... 335 days if Saturday and Sunday not excluded. Let assume that there is 20 trading days in a month. We get 12 x 20 = 240 trading days in a year.

So that, the probability of the failure is (35/240) x 100% = 14.58 % per trading day.
While the chance to succeed is (100-14.48) % = 85.52 % per trading day.

I hope so

----------------------------------------------------------------
Daily Fractal
12 times failure since 1st August 2006 (2 years@24 months)

Assume 20 trading days per month
24 months = 480 trading days

Failure probability = (12 /480) * 100% = 2.5 % per day
Succeed = (100-2.5) = 97.5 %

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Weekly
3 times failure since 1st Jan 2000 (8 years and 6 months @ 102 months)

Failure probability = (3 /102) * 100% = 2.94 % per months
Succeed = (100-2.94) = 97.06 % per months

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Monthly
7 times failure since 1st Julai 1979 (29 years @ 348 months)

Failure probability = (7/348) * 100% = 2 % per months
Succeed = (100-2) = 98 % per months

Testing Hi Lo Trading Method

9:40 am gmt +8

Market currently relatively high. The H4 current candle is BULL candle and break the previous high candle. So that it's not suggested to SHORT now. I might wait until H4 form bear candle.

Warning : This is just a test.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
10:57 am gmt+8
Result : Sell@205.98 +20pips so far (I might close manually depend on M5 candle condition)

Update BDHilo

Hi Lo Trading Method : BUY when price low and SELL when high...
I divide the range between high and low into 4 zone :
1. High risk Sell
2. Sell
3. High risk buy
4. Buy
Display high low zone from M5 to H4...
The other information from BDHilo is Risk:Reward ratio

New Indicator, BDHiLo (Under Testing)

11:14 pm gmt +8

Indicator name : BDHilo
Objective : To perform Hi Lo trading method
Scope :
1. Analyze the Hi Lo at certain period
2. Calculate the range between High and Low
3. Analyze risk and reward for BUY and SELL
4. The timeframes D1 to M5

Transform standard indicator

Since the computer's calculation is faster than human eyes... I've transform the standard RSI, Stochastic and MACD without modify any calculation on coding.

RSI to RSI Histogram - to identify strong/weak BULL and strong/weak BEAR so that I can get the proper time to take only BUY or SELL signal from small TF.
Stochastic to Stochastic Histogram - to make it easy to read BULLISH, BEARISH, OB and OS.
MACD to Colored MACD - BLUE bar means the current MACD value is greater than previous value, while RED bar means current value is smaller then the previous.

Little bit about 'Trend Bar'

1.38 PM GMT +8

What is 'Trend Bar' @ 'BD Trend Correlation Bar' all about?

It's difficult to explain in natural language... LOL. It's programming thing. But the purpose is to monitor the currency and correlation comprises of trend, correction and entry.

You may get an idea from the above picture...

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update August, 1st 2008 : Testing result
After some testing I found that the 'BD Trend Correlation Bar' will only work successfully on trending market but the signal failed on sideways market.
The system canceled.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------