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Holygrail

I've been looking for the Holygrail in forex for the rest of my life. Recently I really found it.

"The real holygrail in forex is to understand there is no holygrail."

That's it. The one who are able to understand what's that mean will really find the holygrail.

- BlueDreamFx-


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Saturday, January 16, 2010

Update Version Release



Review

Before you use this indicator you must understand how it work as I told you before... the program on machine calculate faster than human. The purpose of this indicator is to find the best timing to enter the market. The overview is sentiment and psychology on market, the war between Buyer and Seller.

It base on the last 2 or 3 candles formation. You can refer here ---> http://bluedreamfx.blogspot.com/2009/03/story-behind-candle-part-3.html

What I mean by correlation on this indicator
Correlation must relate to at least one 'QUOTE' and one 'BASE' from the other pairs.

For example :
If (EURUSD up) And (GBPJPY up) And (EURJPY up) then EURJPY is said to be correlated up because the changes synchronized with Quote and Base currency from another pairs.

As result we get 'up',' dn', 'BUY', 'SELL' signal referred as correlated signal. '*' and '**' as uncorrelated signal.
Where 'BUY', 'SELL' and '**' indicate that the formation of last candles seems like entry pattern while 'up', 'dn' and '*' is just continuation pattern.

Whats new
1. As I mentioned before... the sign of Risk Aversion or Risk Appetite by 'Yellow Arrow'. Refer here ---> http://bluedreamfx.blogspot.com/2010/01/risk-aversion.html
2. The double star '**' uncorrelated entry pattern or formation.

Download Link
1) FullHouseEx2Plus
2) MTF candle time and mq4 source (feel free to modify it for your convenience)

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How to use :
In order to get the valid signal, for the first run of this indicator,
please update UJ, EJ, GJ, EU, GU and EG from m5 to mn1.
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Little bit about history/evolution
I've created many indicators just like any other indicator, using formula or combination of formulas to give RED BLUE signal but this one for me is unique. The RED BLUE signal will became unusable or irrelevant as the biggest scenario of market changed. For example the Weekly Time Frame change from trending to sideways market the RED BLUE signal will no longer give valid signal. But 'the story' will never expired because 'the story' is not signal. It just tell what's happen on the market at the moment.

This 'story' has evolved three times.
1. Fractal BBF indicator - List down 72 probabilities of candles formation. Reference : http://bluedreamfx.blogspot.com/2009/03/story-behind-candle-part-2.html
2. MarketSentiment indicator - Focus only on entry and continuation patterns. The 'story' still very noisy. Reference : http://bluedreamfx.blogspot.com/2009_02_08_archive.html
3. FullHouse indicator (the latest evolution) - Filtered with Multi Pairs in order to get the real sentiment.

Future Expansion
I might expanse this project to add AUD, NZD, CAD and CHF currency in future, but first I have to do some observation on the current version.

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Understand the conditions + Instinct ...

Understand the conditions + Instinct = Right Decision Making

Indicator is not everything that you need. It just help you to calculate something faster than manual... to capture the changes faster than your eyes can do. So that you can understand what's going on Just In Time.

One of the greatest mistake of the trader is using RED BLUE signal as primary guide to enter the market. Unfortunately, there is no perfect formula to predict the market or sophisticated mechanism to handle the risk. Sooner or later the calculation and prediction of the indicator will fail.

Trade like a Big Dog is not just to understand but to feel the market behavior. So that you know the right time to enter the market.

p/s at least you feel and act the way the Big Dog do even though you are just a cat

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Risk Aversion


Risk aversion is a concept in economics, finance, and psychology based in the behavior of humans (especially consumers and investors) whilst exposed to uncertainty.

Risk aversion is the reluctance of a person to accept a bargain with an uncertain payoff rather than another bargain with a more certain, but possibly lower, expected payoff. For example, a risk-averse investor might choose to put his or her money into a bank account with a low but guaranteed interest rate, rather than into a stock that may have high returns, but also has a chance of becoming worthless.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_aversion

Risk appetite, by contrast, is likely to shift periodically as investors respond to episodes of financial distress and macroeconomic uncertainty. In adverse circumstances, investors will require higher excess expected returns to hold each unit of risk and risk appetite will be low—it is the inverse of the price of risk. And when the price of risk is taken together with the quantity of risk inherent in a particular asset, the expected return required to compensate investors for holding that asset is the risk premium.


I've modified the FullHouse indicator to determine or to captured the sign of Risk Aversion (or Risk Appetite). The yellow arrow come out (refer the above picture) whenever base USD or base JPY suddenly become strong and the movement direction is opposite each other.

p/s The version not yet release. Stay tune.

 
Disclaimer :
The content of this blog is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing on this site should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.