GBPJPY : My next week trading overview

Market will soon perform BEARISH continuation???

As long as price not able to break the trendline... the market most likely BEARISH in long term.

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Update

Monday, August 25, 2008
8:10 pm gmt+8

Price movement still in tract.

BDHiLo Update

I've updated the BDHilo to highlight and monitor breakout Vs Hi Lo Range.

The font change to bold... colored with RED or BLUE on breakout. So that i can get more alert on High or Low breakout event.

GBPJPY : Fractal up has just formed

9:10 am gmt +8

Fractal up has just formed at H4 . The risk and reward ratio for the current position is 21:178 . I assume that the probability of H4 fractal succeed is 85.52 % (from data history).

The BDHiLo indicates that the price relatively high and the current movement of M5 is BEAR. That's why i enter SHORT position with SL, risk+10 = 31 pips from current price. The TP is not set yet but should be less the 178, may be half.

p/s : I'm scalper. Most of time I close post manually.

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Update

1:25 pm gmt+8

I've just noticed that the fractals indicator could be repainted. The fractal up suddenly disappeared and my post hit SL. But it doesn't matter... I will only stick on this system and tried to find out how to overcome the weakness.

I'm actually break the system's rule when trade without referring small TF for best entry. I was just too obsess with H4 fractal. I will accept this as lesson. Better careful next time.

GBPJPY : Bearish continuation failed

8:38 am gmt +8

When Bull candle successfully went back above the key level 202.51, I expect that the bearish continuation failed. The price play around high 205.24 and low 202.51 in H4 chart.

The only clue that I have in H1 chart price might continuously up if price break 203.78. Otherwise, price will down.

H4 fractal failure history

The method i use in my Hi Lo trading system is H4 fractal.

I've did some history checking on data to find out the occurrence of the system's failure. Since 1st August 2007 there are 35 times the price against the fractal direction and broke High or Low.

That's mean 35 times fails in a year.... 335 days if Saturday and Sunday not excluded. Let assume that there is 20 trading days in a month. We get 12 x 20 = 240 trading days in a year.

So that, the probability of the failure is (35/240) x 100% = 14.58 % per trading day.
While the chance to succeed is (100-14.48) % = 85.52 % per trading day.

I hope so

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Daily Fractal
12 times failure since 1st August 2006 (2 years@24 months)

Assume 20 trading days per month
24 months = 480 trading days

Failure probability = (12 /480) * 100% = 2.5 % per day
Succeed = (100-2.5) = 97.5 %

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Weekly
3 times failure since 1st Jan 2000 (8 years and 6 months @ 102 months)

Failure probability = (3 /102) * 100% = 2.94 % per months
Succeed = (100-2.94) = 97.06 % per months

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Monthly
7 times failure since 1st Julai 1979 (29 years @ 348 months)

Failure probability = (7/348) * 100% = 2 % per months
Succeed = (100-2) = 98 % per months

GBPJPY : BULL for today???

7:53 am gmt +8

BULL for today??? Is it that simple???

As i follow this trading system rule... i'm going to take only on BUY signal from small TF at low price as long as the price not break the last low 204.12

GBPJPY : Accept only SELL signal

9:26 am gmt+8

H4 : Previous bull candle unable to break the highest at 205.24 and regarding to my Hi Lo trading method... the price currently laid at sell zone were the chance and risk reward ratio for SHORT position is better then LONG.

So that... as long as the price not able break 205.24 i will take only on SELL signal from small TF

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Result

7:46 pm gmt+8


The market finally decide to go BEARISH as what i've expected. The last low reached by market is 204.12.

Regarding to the my Hi Lo trading method... the current price relatively low. However at the moment i didn't get any clues yet..... to continue BEARISH or reversal for BULLISH...

I need to wait for next H4 candle.

GBPJPY : Let price testing the last low

1:50 pm gmt +8

The last candle on H4 is BEAR candle and the price might down for a little while to test the lowest 204.28

If price unable the break the level... i expect that the market will BULL

Testing Hi Lo Trading Method

9:40 am gmt +8

Market currently relatively high. The H4 current candle is BULL candle and break the previous high candle. So that it's not suggested to SHORT now. I might wait until H4 form bear candle.

Warning : This is just a test.

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10:57 am gmt+8
Result : Sell@205.98 +20pips so far (I might close manually depend on M5 candle condition)

Update BDHilo

Hi Lo Trading Method : BUY when price low and SELL when high...
I divide the range between high and low into 4 zone :
1. High risk Sell
2. Sell
3. High risk buy
4. Buy
Display high low zone from M5 to H4...
The other information from BDHilo is Risk:Reward ratio