H4 fractal failure history

The method i use in my Hi Lo trading system is H4 fractal.

I've did some history checking on data to find out the occurrence of the system's failure. Since 1st August 2007 there are 35 times the price against the fractal direction and broke High or Low.

That's mean 35 times fails in a year.... 335 days if Saturday and Sunday not excluded. Let assume that there is 20 trading days in a month. We get 12 x 20 = 240 trading days in a year.

So that, the probability of the failure is (35/240) x 100% = 14.58 % per trading day.
While the chance to succeed is (100-14.48) % = 85.52 % per trading day.

I hope so

----------------------------------------------------------------
Daily Fractal
12 times failure since 1st August 2006 (2 years@24 months)

Assume 20 trading days per month
24 months = 480 trading days

Failure probability = (12 /480) * 100% = 2.5 % per day
Succeed = (100-2.5) = 97.5 %

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Weekly
3 times failure since 1st Jan 2000 (8 years and 6 months @ 102 months)

Failure probability = (3 /102) * 100% = 2.94 % per months
Succeed = (100-2.94) = 97.06 % per months

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Monthly
7 times failure since 1st Julai 1979 (29 years @ 348 months)

Failure probability = (7/348) * 100% = 2 % per months
Succeed = (100-2) = 98 % per months