HAPPY NEW YEAR

Hello All...

I wish you Happy New Year....


p/s .... By the name of God... I wish this year is the most successful year in my life

EJ analysis

Critical high for Bullish continuation : 127.68
Critical level for reversal to Bearish (neckline) : 127.07
The possible movement to confirm reversal .... price must first break the neckline and the next high should be lower or at least around the neckline...
Otherwise... it's not suggested to enter SELL.

My New Template

Indicator in first window...
Chart in second an third window...

GJ - H1 UP

Uptrend detected on H1... might get some pips.

Uptrend

Regarding to the system... there is nothing that I can say... unless uptrend has just began... and only buy signal recommended.

ref : GU, EJ and GJ

Market Sideways

From technical analysis, what can i see so far.... market currently indecision mode. EUR strenghten and EURxxx start to make big timeframe correction. JPY weakened and xxxJPY almost start to follow the same pattern as EURxxx.

USD weakened and EURUSD might up in mid term. ???

Summary : Market currently unpredictable and not suitable for trade. In my opinion USD weakness factor is not sufficient enough to convince the world market to go strong BULLISH.

Suggestion : In big timeframe sideways market, most of system which use several indicators to confirm BUY or SELL signal, normally became inefficient. And also in my opinion.... the effective way to trade is SELL on high and BUY on low until the event of breakout.

Market Overview

EURUSD
Trend : Sideway around level high 1.2761 and low 1.2607 (Range 154 pips)
Current Condition : Considered strong BULLISH at H1...
Suggestion : Since market remain BEARISH on big time frame, it suggested to enter SELL position when price reach around high level.

GBPUSD
Trend : The strong BEARISH remain on D1
Current condition : Strong BULLISH at H1 and the critical High level was 1.5044, 312 pips from current price.
Suggestion : The BULLISH has just began on H1 and we might enter BUY position to gain some pips. Or we might enter SELL position when price reach around high level 1.5044. Remember to trade on what you see and don't trade on what you think.

EURJPY
Trend : Almost same as GBPUSD, strong BULLISH at H1 but the major trend was down at D1. The high level 119.25, 100 pips from current price, while low level 117.01, 121 pips from current price. It might too late to enter BUY????


GBPJPY
Critical High 141.94, 492 from current price and Low 133.82, 318 from current price. The major trend remain bearish. BULLISH just began on H1, might considered as correction wave...

Summary:
The overall movement of price indicate that the market situation was indecision mode (refer H4) Major trend remain BEARISH (D1 to MN1) and currently did some correction (H1). Suggestion, SELL for swing and BUY for scalp.

Market Overview

11:25PM GMT+8

At the moment, strong downtrend detected on EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY and GBPJPY... in longterm.

In H4 most likely SIDEWAY for a while

Enhance the interface of indicator

My idea to trade on volume and ATR

My First Succeed EA

Date tested : From 2008.05.01 to 2008.10.30 (6 months)
Symbol : EURUSD
Period : 1H
Initial : usd 100
Total Net Profit : usd 4606 (4600% by using compounding technique, equal to the initial usd1000 will generate usd 46,000)
EA Trade time : 24 hours a day and 5 days per week
Method : xxx
Accuracy : 87.50%

EA vs manual trade

Every system has it own rules to enter position (BUY or SELL) and to exit opened position.
Some of the advantages of using EA are as follows :
1 - The EA (program) won't forget once the instruction set into it.
2 - The program won't interfered by emotion.
3 - The program will open position on exact conditions.
4 - The accuracy of the system could be tested.

I assume that the market big timeframe only have two situations, Sideways and Trending. The good system will profit on good market movement and could pass or at least minimize loss on bad situation of market. And the system also must has lower risk of -ve floating.
That's why i believe that this EA will profit on long term.

p/s why i love to create ea? because i can test the strategy... and i have a vision to know the system will succeed or not in manual trade... no need to loss to get a lesson. It wasting time and money
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Project status : SUCCEED !!!
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GBPJPY : Confirm reverse or not?

1.50 PM gmt+8

H4 market currently sideways.

GJ considered uptrend if price could break around level 193.44.... 94 pips to go. Otherwise, it remain Bearish

Chaos Fractal Breakout EA result

Result : The EA will profit on trending market but will fail under sideways market on large timeframe.

Status : EA Failed.

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Chaos EA project closed
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Developing Chaos Fractal Breakout EA in progress

The indicators used on this ea are :
1. Awesome Oscillator - to check trend
2. Alligator - to check trend
3. Fractals - High Low breakout

EA procedure :
1. Pending order, BUY STOP above upper fractal during UPTREND. TP 15 pips. SL several pips bellow fractal candle.

1. Pending order, SELL STOP below lower fractal during DOWNTREND. TP 15 pips. SL several pips above fractal candle.

The EA need to modify for further improvement.

I love this EA because it use simple and systematic method.

My Second EA. HOLYGRAIL???

Have you ever believe on 'Perfect Trade'?
This one I'm not sure, is it really holygrail or not? The only thing that I can make sure is it's low risk EA. However, by using compounding technique, it still have an ability to generate gross profit 382.64% in 5 trading days.

Let me try to estimate the income by expending the trading period into 2 weeks.
Let say the initial is usd1000

1st 5 days : 1000 x 380% = 3800, Balance : 4380
2nd 5 days : 4380 x 380% = 16644, Balance : 21024

How about, if we start with initial usd100










Wow. Could it be real???

Strategy Tester : Compounding Tecnique on GU

Nice result on GU... from initial deposit 10,000 the ea generate 48,439 net profit in 2042 candles in M5.
That's mean,
2042 m5 candles = 2042 x 5 = 10210 minutes
= 10210 / 60 = 170.17 hours
= 170.17 / 24 = 7 days

Unbelievable... from initial 10,000 can get final balance 58,439 .... 580.39% in 7 trading days...

But as a programmer, i still can feel that this ea will fail under certain circumstance.
I need to find out... and overcome the probabilities of failure.

My First EA

At first, I'm not interested to study EA coding. But the only way to test the trading strategy is by creating EA... that's why I have to learn it. And now, I've got little bit idea about creating EA. The picture above shows the result of my first EA

p/s Good try

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Update

Smooth result on GU... I've just realized it

My auto trade project

I'm going to develop my first auto trade project. I thought, It's not really EA (actually i don't really have any idea about EA programming)... it's standard indicator but it will perform auto trade on certain condition by executing the line of code or procedure (it's programming things).

I've made some observation on the stoch+RSI signal and I've listed a few things to be considered about on this auto trade project.

It doesn't necessary to know everything, but i need to know what i have to know.

p/s Could I change the way I sleep? Could I generate money while sleeping? or could I work 24 hours a day?

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Update

I've finished update the parameters to be used in this program.
And I was also finish program the procedures to open trade (buy and sell), to close order and to detect when the trade hit SL.

The only thing is, to test the program. Is it work or not??? If the the things work... I will make some observation for further enhancement.

This would be my first step to EA programming??? For me, it's not really important. The objective is to create the program to trade automatically. I also wan't the system do exactly as I trade manually. And.... if the trade loss, i will not blame the system. That was the best I can do on manual trading.

p/s Control emotion aspect is not a big deal anymore

GBPJPY : Sideways in H4

9:30 am gmt+8

I expect that the trend is sideways... and price play around high 194.84 and low 192.63.

Last time H4 BULL candle failed to confirm BULLISH... and what we can see now is the power between BUYER and SELLER is balance... for a little while they don't have any decision to go where.....

On this case i might BUY when price low or SELL on high as long as price in range.

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Update
12:38 pm gmt+8

Currently price keep trying to break Low 192.62 for BEARISH continuation

Could the system help us to control our emotion???

After a long time... finally i realize that... we make money by waiting. Emotion is the greatest weakness and at the same time it could be the greatest strength of human being. However to deal with market, someone has to be patient and able to controlled emotion. That was the most difficult part in trading.

I've updated the system by adding the system's reminder... hopefully i will always remember to control emotion in trading. I understand that the system is not intelligent enough but at least the system always thinking in logical way.... and won't forget once the instruction set into it.

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And.... Who is BlueDream anyway??? --------------------------------------------------------------------------

GBPJPY : Tried to find U-Turn

12:04 pm gmt+8

The overall movement is down, however... H4 and Daily chart already oversold and at the moment it's highly risk to enter SHORT position.

The market might try to find the U-Turn for BULLISH after very long journey for BEARISH....
If we take a look at H4 chart... we found that the previous candle is short body candle with long lower shadow... usually good sign for U-turn. However the current H4 candle tried to 'retrace' the lower shadow... it's also possible if the current candle of H4 break the previous candle's low.

I expect that market will BULL if price could break the level 194.67 .... So what can i suggest is stay out from market until market decide where to go.

SHORT - High Risk
LONG - Not yet confirm

p/s Or maybe you already forget about BULL and what is BULL anyway... LOL

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Result
8:48 pm gmt+8

As i said... market keep trying to get U-Turn for BULLISH... The price failed to break the last low 192.62.... and now the current BULL candle keep trying to reach the critical level for BULLISH confirmation, 194.79. However, maybe it's not so fast.

We just try to imagine on how about the trader's psychology around the world right now.... I thought some of them are taking profit and SELL the yen... That was the story behind the candle

Moving to EA???

I've combined 2 indicators source code(BDStochRSI + BDBestEntryAlert), into 1 single source to get integrated and comprehensive info about trend and entry point.

From here, i get an idea to create my first EA. But so far there are many things to observe. And since I'm not familiar with EA programming, I've also many things to study.

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Commercial Break
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Baa Baa Black Sheep rhyme

Baa baa black sheep, have you any wool?
Yes sir, yes sir, three bags full!
One for the master, one for the dame,
And one for the little boy who lives down the lane.

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GBPJPY : Let see what will happen

9:17 am gmt +8

BDStochRSI indicates strong BEARISH in all timeframes... let see what will happen.

*** Warning : This is just a test

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Update
9:25 am gmt +8

Close 40 pips when BDStochRSI : H4 - High risk sell (it means oversold and against BEAR direction).

I'm waiting for next signal....

New BlueDream's indicators

There are two indicators :

1. BDStochRSI_Bar
Summarized the signal from standard Stochastic and RSI. I will use this indicator on H4. The signals generated by this indicator are :
- UP
- DOWN
- Correction(Up)
- Correction(Down)
- High Risk SELL
- High Risk BUY
- No Signal
The indicator could save time, simplified analysis and reduce human error.

2. BDBestEntryAlert
This indicator won't show the direction of market but it's aim to get the best among the best entry point for BUY and SELL, so that our post will follow the price movement as soon as we enter the market. I will use this indicator to read M5 pattern (fractals and engulfing) for entry point. Moreover, the signal generated earlier before current candle complete (as soon as the pattern captured by program)... so that we won't miss even few pips (the idea of indicator's creation). The indicator display alert box, no need to watch chart on every single moment to get entry point.

For example : Let say the indicator on H4 shows that the market will up.... by using BDBestEntryAlert, i will accept only on BUY signal to enter the market

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Update


I've updated the BDStochRSI_Bar. The indicator display signal summary for all timeframes and indicator's bar not displayed.

The signal result was actually same (or maybe accidentally same) as what i have summarized on my price action analysis using candles formation... where biggest timeframes indicates strong BEARISH and no sign yet for BULL while H4 indicates weak BULL.

Please refer my post on Saturday, August 30, 2008 - GBPJPY : My Next week trading option.

GBPJPY : My next week trading option

I might take only SELL signal... Depend on H4 situation...
Or if market wish to go UP, maybe I have to let price goes high as high as it can... I expect that the price won't able to pass the second trendline for the first swing...

**** Reminder : I trade more on scalping... interact with candles formation... and the analysis might not suitable for some traders

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HAPPY NATIONAL DAY TO ALL MALAYSIAN
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GBPJPY: Price relatively low, for LONG position

10:07 gmt+8

Watch carefully the previous candle's low 200.46. It's laid at H4 support area. I expect market will BULL if price not able to broke the level.

At the moment, price relatively low, 43 pips from the level for LONG position. The reasonable SL if I enter LONG now would be 43+8 pips from current price.

2 hours and 50 minutes to go (from the time i framed the picture) to form H4 fractal

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Result
12:59 pm gmt +8

Price broke 200.46 and achieved new low 200.32.... The price currently retest the level 200.46

GBPJPY : BEARISH will win???

10:45 am gmt +8

Regarding to the last 3 candles High and Low analysis, we found that the market gave more pressure on support level...

It's similar to the Descending Triangles pattern. In the most cases, BEARISH will win at last

***** Warning : It's only my opinion *****

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Result
11:42 pm gmt +8

After broke support level 201.37 price dropped for about 88 pips before BULL running wild for a little while.....

GBPJPY : Double bottom or breakout?

2:17 pm gmt +8

BEARISH already began.
Watch closely the critical support level 207.74
Market will soon to form double bottom or H4 lower fractal breakout....
My suggestion is set TP several pips above 207.74 and wait for next price action

GBPJPY : Looking for next SHORT entry

11:41 am gmt +8

Since BEARISH get control in the market... I will only looking for the best SHORT entry

GBPJPY : Result

10:00 am gmt +8

It's happen exactly as forecast ....
At the moment, there is no signal for futher. But I expect that BEARISH still control the market. I might wait price to go as high as it can for SHORT entry

GBPJPY : My next week trading overview

Market will soon perform BEARISH continuation???

As long as price not able to break the trendline... the market most likely BEARISH in long term.

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Update

Monday, August 25, 2008
8:10 pm gmt+8

Price movement still in tract.

BDHiLo Update

I've updated the BDHilo to highlight and monitor breakout Vs Hi Lo Range.

The font change to bold... colored with RED or BLUE on breakout. So that i can get more alert on High or Low breakout event.

GBPJPY : Fractal up has just formed

9:10 am gmt +8

Fractal up has just formed at H4 . The risk and reward ratio for the current position is 21:178 . I assume that the probability of H4 fractal succeed is 85.52 % (from data history).

The BDHiLo indicates that the price relatively high and the current movement of M5 is BEAR. That's why i enter SHORT position with SL, risk+10 = 31 pips from current price. The TP is not set yet but should be less the 178, may be half.

p/s : I'm scalper. Most of time I close post manually.

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Update

1:25 pm gmt+8

I've just noticed that the fractals indicator could be repainted. The fractal up suddenly disappeared and my post hit SL. But it doesn't matter... I will only stick on this system and tried to find out how to overcome the weakness.

I'm actually break the system's rule when trade without referring small TF for best entry. I was just too obsess with H4 fractal. I will accept this as lesson. Better careful next time.

GBPJPY : Bearish continuation failed

8:38 am gmt +8

When Bull candle successfully went back above the key level 202.51, I expect that the bearish continuation failed. The price play around high 205.24 and low 202.51 in H4 chart.

The only clue that I have in H1 chart price might continuously up if price break 203.78. Otherwise, price will down.

H4 fractal failure history

The method i use in my Hi Lo trading system is H4 fractal.

I've did some history checking on data to find out the occurrence of the system's failure. Since 1st August 2007 there are 35 times the price against the fractal direction and broke High or Low.

That's mean 35 times fails in a year.... 335 days if Saturday and Sunday not excluded. Let assume that there is 20 trading days in a month. We get 12 x 20 = 240 trading days in a year.

So that, the probability of the failure is (35/240) x 100% = 14.58 % per trading day.
While the chance to succeed is (100-14.48) % = 85.52 % per trading day.

I hope so

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Daily Fractal
12 times failure since 1st August 2006 (2 years@24 months)

Assume 20 trading days per month
24 months = 480 trading days

Failure probability = (12 /480) * 100% = 2.5 % per day
Succeed = (100-2.5) = 97.5 %

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Weekly
3 times failure since 1st Jan 2000 (8 years and 6 months @ 102 months)

Failure probability = (3 /102) * 100% = 2.94 % per months
Succeed = (100-2.94) = 97.06 % per months

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Monthly
7 times failure since 1st Julai 1979 (29 years @ 348 months)

Failure probability = (7/348) * 100% = 2 % per months
Succeed = (100-2) = 98 % per months

GBPJPY : BULL for today???

7:53 am gmt +8

BULL for today??? Is it that simple???

As i follow this trading system rule... i'm going to take only on BUY signal from small TF at low price as long as the price not break the last low 204.12

GBPJPY : Accept only SELL signal

9:26 am gmt+8

H4 : Previous bull candle unable to break the highest at 205.24 and regarding to my Hi Lo trading method... the price currently laid at sell zone were the chance and risk reward ratio for SHORT position is better then LONG.

So that... as long as the price not able break 205.24 i will take only on SELL signal from small TF

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Result

7:46 pm gmt+8


The market finally decide to go BEARISH as what i've expected. The last low reached by market is 204.12.

Regarding to the my Hi Lo trading method... the current price relatively low. However at the moment i didn't get any clues yet..... to continue BEARISH or reversal for BULLISH...

I need to wait for next H4 candle.

GBPJPY : Let price testing the last low

1:50 pm gmt +8

The last candle on H4 is BEAR candle and the price might down for a little while to test the lowest 204.28

If price unable the break the level... i expect that the market will BULL

Testing Hi Lo Trading Method

9:40 am gmt +8

Market currently relatively high. The H4 current candle is BULL candle and break the previous high candle. So that it's not suggested to SHORT now. I might wait until H4 form bear candle.

Warning : This is just a test.

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10:57 am gmt+8
Result : Sell@205.98 +20pips so far (I might close manually depend on M5 candle condition)