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Holygrail

I've been looking for the Holygrail in forex for the rest of my life. Recently I really found it.

"The real holygrail in forex is to understand there is no holygrail."

That's it. The one who are able to understand what's that mean will really find the holygrail.

- BlueDreamFx-


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Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Risk Aversion


Risk aversion is a concept in economics, finance, and psychology based in the behavior of humans (especially consumers and investors) whilst exposed to uncertainty.

Risk aversion is the reluctance of a person to accept a bargain with an uncertain payoff rather than another bargain with a more certain, but possibly lower, expected payoff. For example, a risk-averse investor might choose to put his or her money into a bank account with a low but guaranteed interest rate, rather than into a stock that may have high returns, but also has a chance of becoming worthless.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_aversion

Risk appetite, by contrast, is likely to shift periodically as investors respond to episodes of financial distress and macroeconomic uncertainty. In adverse circumstances, investors will require higher excess expected returns to hold each unit of risk and risk appetite will be low—it is the inverse of the price of risk. And when the price of risk is taken together with the quantity of risk inherent in a particular asset, the expected return required to compensate investors for holding that asset is the risk premium.


I've modified the FullHouse indicator to determine or to captured the sign of Risk Aversion (or Risk Appetite). The yellow arrow come out (refer the above picture) whenever base USD or base JPY suddenly become strong and the movement direction is opposite each other.

p/s The version not yet release. Stay tune.

1 comment:

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